There’s been no shortage of hot weather so far this summer, but the hottest temperatures of the season — at least to date — may be on the way for next week.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is projecting likely above-average temperatures for the entire eastern U.S. next week, which translates to at least a 70% chance of above-average temperatures. The average high temperature in Oneida for late July is 86°.

Temperatures next week are expected to be in the 90s on the Cumberland Plateau, pushing close to 100° in valley locations on either side of the plateau, with heat indices pushing into the low 100s throughout the region.

According to the current National Weather Service forecast, the northern plateau region, including Scott County, could hit 90° as soon as Tuesday.

Daily thunderstorm chances are expected to continue through next week’s heat wave, although daily storm chances won’t be as great as they’re expected to be this weekend, when afternoon thunderstorms will be a near certainty each day.

The story of summer to this point has been steamy weather — above-average temperatures and above-average rainfall. Although there haven’t been any extreme temperatures so far — the hottest temperature recorded in Oneida has been 94°, back in June — the average temperature is running about two degrees warmer than normal for the month of July, after also running two degrees warmer than normal in June. Simultaneously, the area has a rainfall surplus of nearly six inches since the meteorological start of summer on June 1.

Next week’s hot spell is not expected to be short-lived; there are some indications that it could stretch through the remainder of July and into August. In fact, some modeling indicates that the following week could be even hotter than next week, with triple-digit temperatures covering a large swath of the U.S., although that’s far enough out that it’s subject to significant changes between now and then.

The emerging pattern shows eery similarities to 1980, which stands alone, even 45 years later, as the definition of a relentless heat wave during summer’s dog days in Tennessee. Scott County experienced much-above-normal temperatures during the months of July, August and September in 1980, and the average temperature was an astounding 10 degrees above normal throughout the month of August 1980 — an almost unheard of anomaly. It currently seems very unlikely that temperatures across the northern plateau will be nearly as hot during the upcoming heat wave as they were in 1980, but the looming heat wave could rival the 1980 heat wave in terms of longevity, if current long-term modeling projections prove to be true.

The month of May, which ended Saturday, seemed unusually gray and cool in East Tennessee. How did it actually stack up? Believe it or not, slightly warmer than usual.

The typical average temperature in Oneida during the month of May is 63.1°. May 2025 saw an average temperature of 63.3°, which is just barely above average.

That number is deceiving, however. The same cloud cover that resulted in so many gray days in May also kept temperatures up at night. Cloudy days are typically cooler than clear days, and clear nights are typically cooler than cloudy nights. That’s because cloud cover serves as an insulator — blocking some of the sun’s penetrating rays during the day, while also preventing heat from escaping back into the atmosphere at night.

As a result, our average nighttime temperature in May was 53.3° — a full three degrees above average.

By contrast, our daytime temperature during the month of May averaged 73.3° — a little more than 2.5 degrees below average. When most people perceive temperatures being warm or cool, they’re basing that perception on what’s happening during the day. That’s why the overall average temperature for May was deceptive: we saw a lot of relatively cool days, but they were offset by a lot of relatively warm nights — again, due to excessive cloud cover that persisted for most of the month.

The hottest temperature we experienced in May was 83°. The temperature hit 80° or hotter six different days in Oneida during the month of May, the fewest this decade. The most was in 2022, when we hit 80° or warmer 15 different days in May.

That’s expected to change this week, with temperatures potentially getting to 80° as soon as Monday, and almost certainly getting into the 80s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Oneida typically sees its first day of temperatures warmer than 85° by May 19, though it hasn’t happened so far this year.

We typically see our first 90° temperature during the month of June. The average date of the first 90° day in Oneida is June 19, dating back to the 1950s. (The latest it’s ever happened was in 2003, when the first 90° day didn’t happen until Aug. 25.)

Much of Tennessee, including the northern Cumberland Plateau region, has been included in an “enhanced risk” outlook for severe weather on Tuesday by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

An “enhanced risk” is the third level on the SPC’s five-step scale for measuring the threat of severe weather. Enhanced risk outlooks are relatively rare for the northern plateau region, but this will be the second “enhanced risk” day in the past five days. The region was also under an “enhanced risk” for severe weather on Friday, the evening a fatal tornado ripped through the Kentucky towns of Somerset and London.

Statistically speaking, an “enhanced risk” means there’s a 30% chance that severe weather will occur. Specifically, the SPC has highlighted a 45% risk for damaging wind gusts in the northern plateau region, along with a 15% risk of tornadoes and large hail.

A 45% risk of damaging winds is quite high, relatively speaking, for the northern plateau region; a threat level rarely seen in this part of the country.

Models have indicated two rounds of thunderstorms on Tuesday — the first during the early afternoon hours, around 2 p.m. (give or take an hour either direction) and the second during the evening hours, around 8 p.m. (again, give or take an hour either way).

In a Monday afternoon forecast discussion, the National Weather Service’s Morristown office, which covers Scott County, said that confidence is increasing that severe weather will occur.

“Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible,” the NWS said. “Make sure to have multiple ways to receive watch and warning information and stay weather aware.”

In the same discussion, the NWS said that there could be “scattered to widespread severe weather … associated with the cold front in the evening,” around 8 p.m.

Specifically, the NWS said, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, large hail to 1.25 inches, and a few tornadoes could occur.

Another round of severe weather is possible this week, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

Two days of strong thunderstorms are anticipated. The first, Monday, will result in a slight risk of severe weather primarily to the south of Scott County. The northern Cumberland Plateau region, including Scott County, is only in a “marginal risk” for severe weather on Monday, according to the SPC.

On Tuesday, the risk for severe weather will increase substantially, according to the SPC. Scott County and the northern plateau are included in a “slight risk” outlook for severe weather, while the western half of Tennessee is included in an “enhanced risk” for severe weather.

Statistically, a “slight risk” means there’s at least a 15% chance for severe weather, and an “enhanced risk” means there’s at least a 30% chance.

In an update Sunday afternoon, the SPC said that supercell storm structures are expected to develop across the Mid-South Tuesday afternoon, which could pose a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts and tornadoes. As the activity shifts eastward towards the Tennessee Valley, there’s expected to be a threat of significant wind gusts.

In a Sunday afternoon forecast discussion, the National Weather Service’s Morristown office, which covers Scott County, said that the primary threats will be damaging wind and large hail.

There is a question as to whether thunderstorm development will occur as far east as the northern plateau Tuesday afternoon. However, a line of storms is expected to push through the region Tuesday evening, perhaps around sunset.

Scott County and the rest of the region were under an “enhanced risk” of severe weather Friday night, though the extent of the damage locally was only a few downed trees and isolated power outages.

Cool temperatures are anticipated in the aftermath of the storms, with highs reaching only the low 60s on Thursday and Friday before slowly rebounding into the low 70s next weekend.

If you subscribe to weather folklore, the cold snap we’re in for later this week would have to be “cotton britches winter.”

The old-timers referred to spring-time cold snaps by whatever was blooming at the time: commonly, redbud winter, dogwood winter, locus winter and blackberry winter. Since all of those plants have already bloomed, the upcoming cold snap would be the name that usually came next on the old-timers’ list: cotton britches winter, which was so-called because it referred to the need to have not packed away your long underwear for the season.

In any event, a late-season cold snap appears to be headed our way next week, as an unusually mild month of May nears its end with, apparently, one last hurrah.

After a warmer-than-usual month of April, this month has featured a dearth of warm daytime temperatures. Even when it was supposed to be warm, it hasn’t been. On Thursday, for example, the forecasted high was 86° in Oneida. The actual recorded high, according to the National Weather Service, was only 80°.

Believe it or not, May has actually been warmer than normal overall, but that’s due to very mild nighttime temperatures, which have been running about five degrees warmer than normal this month — thanks mostly to excessive cloud cover that hasn’t allowed a lot of radiational cooling at nights. It’s been a rather wet month, featuring about 33% more rainfall than normal to this point, and that has meant more cloudy nights.

After several rainy days to start the week, including a threat of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, colder air will settle across Tennessee for a few days to end the week. The National Weather Service’s forecasted high for Oneida on Thursday is just 64°. If some models are to be believed, that prediction may be optimistic; some models show us struggling to get out of the 50s on Thursday, with cloudy skies and a chance of lingering rain showers.

Memorial Day weekend is considered the unofficial kickoff to the summer season. The Big South Fork National River & Recreation Area’s swimming pool at Bandy Creek will open on Friday. But it won’t feel much like summer, at least to start the weekend. Temperatures will climb back into the low 70s by Saturday. Even still, cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected to hang around through much of the following week. And the relatively wet weather pattern that we’re in may linger all the way into the middle of June, at least.

Not everyone will be bummed about the upcoming cold snap. The NWS office in Nashville described the week ahead like this in a Saturday afternoon forecast discussion: “Once that front pushes through, some absolutely fantastic weather is in store with temperatures falling enough to give us that one last reminder of what we likely won’t see until October again.”

Last-season cool snaps aren’t unusual, of course. Our record coolest high temperature for Thursday’s date in Oneida is 57°, set in 2002.

Incidentally, frost is not a concern with this cold snap; nighttime temperatures aren’t currently expected to drop below the mid 40s.