DEVELOPING: A major winter storm threatens the Cumberland Plateau region
Heavy snow is possible from Friday night into Sunday
A major winter storm is anticipated across much of Tennessee this weekend, Jan. 24-25. Frequent updates to published information are expected over the next several days. This story will be updated with that new information, so check back frequently for the latest.
First winter storm watches go up
Tuesday, Jan. 20 • 3:07 p.m.
The first Winter Storm Watches associated with this weekend’s winter storm have been issued by National Weather Service offices to the west of Tennessee. Winter storm watches are in effect for northeast Texas and northern Louisiana, along with much of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Expect these watches to expand eastward over the next 24 hours, perhaps to include East Tennessee.
The storm is expected to begin on Friday, bringing heavy snow on its north side and significant amounts of freezing rain further south. In Arkansas, the NWS office in Little Rock is forecasting more than four inches of snow.
The original story follows…
A major winter storm appears to be taking shape for this weekend, with significant and disruptive snow accumulations possible across the northern Cumberland Plateau region. Further south, a crippling ice storm is possible across portions of Alabama and Georgia.
A low pressure system on the southern branch of the jet stream is expected to pull copious amounts of moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, clashing with a deep surge of arctic air that will settle over the region from the northwest. Snow showers are expected to begin Friday night, then intensify Saturday and Saturday night before tapering off Sunday.
The National Weather Service is using cautious language, given that the onset of the storm is still more than 72 hours away. However, the NWS forecast for Oneida currently calls for a 50% chance of snow showers Friday night with a low of 15°, an 80% chance of snow with a high of 22° on Saturday, and a 90% chance of snow with a low of 16° Saturday night. The NWS’s forecast notes that “snow could be heavy at times” both Saturday and Saturday night. There’s a 50% chance of snow showers on Sunday.
In a Tuesday morning forecast discussion, the NWS’s Morristown weather forecast office, which covers Scott County, cautioned that uncertainty remains around the impending winter storm, but said that “very significant snow accumulations” will be possible in a band somewhere across East Tennessee.
In an afternoon forecast discussion, the agency said that there are two possibilities currently in play: one that would involve a “significant snowfall event” in northern areas, which includes Scott County, with significant icing in southern Tennessee, while the other would result in lighter snow totals further north and heavier amounts along and south of the I-40 corridor.
“At this point in time, it’s difficult to tell which scenario is more likely to play out,” the agency said. “What is pretty clear though is that a highly impactful winter weather event seems set to play out across the southern Appalachian region Saturday and Sunday.”
The NWS added that “power outages will be a distinct possibility.”
The National Blend of Models, a tool used by NWS meteorologists, currently projects the scenario that includes heavier snow further north, painting 10 to 12 inches of snow across the northern Cumberland Plateau region. According to a graphic published by the NWS’s Nashville weather forecast office on Tuesday, the NBM indicates a greater than 60% chance that the northern plateau region will see greater than six inches of snow accumulation.
In its own forecast discussion, NWS-Nashville said that uncertainty remains but its confidence is high in an impactful weekend winter storm.
“Go ahead and make preparations and don’t plan on traveling if you don’t need to,” the agency said. “It is not a simple setup that gives us high confidence in snow or ice amounts. Yes, there are individual models that say a large portion of the area will receive a foot of snow. But, on the flip side, there are models that bring the warm air well into Middle Tennessee which would produce more freezing rain or sleet which would crush the hearts of snow lovers, but still produce significant impacts.”