Flooding is possible Monday, Weather Service says
A Flood Watch is in effect for most of Tennessee beginning Monday morning and continuing throughout the day
Heavy rains could create isolated flooding concerns across the northern Cumberland Plateau region and other parts of Tennessee on Monday, according to the National Weather Service.
The NWS’s Morristown weather forecast office on Sunday issued a Flood Watch for all of East Tennessee, effective throughout the day on Monday. The Nashville weather forecast office issued a Flood Watch for all of Middle Tennessee, as well.
According to the NWS, flash flooding will be a concern if heavy rains materialize on Monday. The agency said that rainfall rates could be as high as three inches per hour, and isolated flash flooding is a concern in areas that receive repeated thunderstorms or prolonged downpours.
It is nearly impossible for meteorologists to pinpoint in advance which areas will receive those heavier thunderstorms. It won’t rain all the time on Monday, and not all areas will see heavy rain. However, precipitable water values will be extremely high throughout the region, as moisture-rich air surges north from the Gulf. Precipitable water refers to the amount of moisture that is present in the atmosphere. As a general rule, the higher the precipitable water, the higher the risk for heavy rain if thunderstorms occur.
Short-term, rapidly-updating models indicated Sunday evening that the greatest risk for flooding rains was across the central Cumberland Plateau region and other areas west and south of Scott County. However, that outlook could easily change over the next 12 hours. Unlike rain and storms that are triggered by large-scale atmospheric conditions, convective thunderstorms — which refer to storms fueled primarily by heating — are impossible to pinpoint more than a few hours in advance.
Rain is expected to remain likely Tuesday and Wednesday. In a Hazardous Weather Outlook published Sunday, NWS-Morristown said the threat of isolated flash flooding will remain throughout the week.
The region remains mired in a severe drought, although drought conditions have improved drastically over the past two weeks. Multiple inches of rain fell across southern Scott County on May 30, and even more rain was received that day in parts of Morgan and Anderson counties.