Tornadoes are increasing in frequency in the Cumberlands
As the increase occurs, Scott County continues its work towards a FEMA-funded storm shelter at Scott High School
As Tornado Alley shifts eastward, the number of tornadoes occurring in the rugged terrain of the Cumberlands — like the one that made a direct hit on Somerset and London Friday night — is also increasing.
The western edge of the Cumberland Plateau has always been a sort of bullseye for tornadoes. There have been a combined 47 tornadoes in Fentress and Cumberland counties since 1950.
But tornadoes are increasing in frequency across the rest of the Cumberland Plateau. In Scott County, there were only three tornadoes in the 60-year period from 1934 to 1994 — all three occurring on April 3, 1974.
However, tornadoes in Scott County — once an extreme rarity — have become much more common over the past few decades. In the 31 years since 1994, there have been eight tornadoes in Scott County, most recently the Helenwood tornado of June 2023.
The number of tornadoes occurring in Scott County remains relatively low, particularly compared to the flatlands of West Tennessee. In Shelby County alone, there have been 56 confirmed tornadoes since 1950, compared to 11 in Scott County during the same time frame.
Yet, tornadoes are in the headlines more frequently both here and across Tennessee as a whole. Scott County experienced its first-ever tornado during the month of June in 2023, when a twister touched down along Helenwood Loop Road. In neighboring Morgan County, there was the Sunbright tornado last year that ripped through the downtown area, and the Deer Lodge tornado earlier this year. There was also a severe thunderstorm that tore through the Big South Fork National River & Recreation Area last Memorial Day weekend. It was never surveyed by either office of the National Weather Service (the damage began in Pickett County, which is covered by the Nashville NWS office, and ended in Scott County, which falls under the responsibility of the Morristown NWS office) to be officially declared a tornado, but caused damage as significant as any tornado in this community’s history — though it was fortunately contained to the uninhabited area of the national park.
Statewide, there have been an average of 31 tornadoes per year since 1995 — up from an average of 19 per year since 1950.
This increase in a once extremely rare weather phenomenon comes as the Scott County Board of Education is pursuing a storm shelter at Scott High School that would be just the second of its kind in the Volunteer State. Spearheaded by 3rdDistrict school board member Chris Shelton, the dome-shaped shelter, which would double as a competition gymnasium, would be funded mostly by FEMA grant dollars.
Despite the increase in tornadoes in Scott County in recent years, most have been weak spin-ups that haven’t resulted in casualties. No one has been injured in a Scott County tornado since a March 1996 tornado in the Pine Hill community.
However, recent years have proven that violent, fatal tornadoes can strike in the hilly terrain of the plateau. The first major example was in November 2002, when seven people were killed and another 28 injured in a tornado that touched down in Morgan County’s Mossy Grove community south of Wartburg. The most recent major example was Friday night, when at least 19 people were killed in Kentucky, most in the city of London. A supercell structure trekked all the way from Missouri into eastern Kentucky, producing tornado warnings along its entire route. The National Weather Service has confirmed an EF-2 tornado in Somerset, and it became even more powerful before striking a subdivision in London, where several of the deaths occurred. The storm survey there had not been completed as of Sunday evening.
When tornadoes occur, those sheltering in mobile homes are most at risk. Meteorologists advise never attempting to ride out a tornado inside a mobile home. Yet in an area of the country where tornadoes have traditionally occurred very infrequently, there’s often nowhere for people to seek shelter when storm warnings are issued.
That’s what the Scott High School storm shelter would be designed to change. Although the possibility of a second, larger gymnasium at the high school is the attention-grabber, the reason FEMA and its state-level counterpart, TEMA, are willing to dump millions of dollars into such projects is their potential to save lives.
If the Scott High project is approved, it’ll be designed based on how many people live within a five-minute walk or drive to the school campus. That’s a FEMA requirement, based on the population that lives or works within a half-mile radius of the school. Based on the numbers, the potential shelter at Scott High would consist of about 20,000 square feet, Broaddus & Associates representative Gregg Kennedy — a former mayor whose Mississippi town was destroyed by a powerful tornado — told Scott County Commission earlier this month.